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Bulls Projected Win Total is Rising… Up To 23

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

Before the season, the Bulls were projected to win 21.2 games (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 10/12 their projected win total was up to 29.2 before dropping to 16.6 on 12/6. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is up to 22.9 wins.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents’ Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #15 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents’ Win Percentage: 52% #4 Toughest

Bulls’ Season Forecast Changes

Date Projected Wins Playoff% East Champ NBA Champ
Feb 19 22.9 0% 0% 0%
Dec 21 18.7 0% 0% 0%
Difference +4.2

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 14-44 Bulls ‘should have’ 18 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 13 good wins vs 5 bad losses. They have come up especially short at home. Their 6-23 home record is -17% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (3-8, 27%) is under their expected 37% win percentage. In simulations where the Bulls played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 38.4% of the time (#27 in the league). This is their peak for the season. Back on 11/23 they won just 22.5%. In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #29 winning 28.5%.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 54.1% (#26 in League). The team has improved to 59.8% in their last 7 games. They average 103.2 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 104.9. On the road they average 103.3 (103.8 expected), and at home 103 ppg (106 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.8 true FG% (#24 in League). They allow 111.6 pts per game vs an expected value of 111.4. They are allowing 110.7 (112.9 expected) on the road, and at home 112.5 ppg (109.9 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 4.4 per game (#28 in league). However, the team has recently outrebounded opponents by 3.

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.7 per game (#19 in league).

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 5 games can be described as ‘cloudy’. They have 3 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and 7 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (37% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 6.6%. With a -0.36 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Cavaliers by 2 games. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Cavaliers. Their projected wins (1.93) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Bulls are the 9th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Bulls are playing 8 games, traveling 3470 miles crossing 5 time zones. They rank #20 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

The Chicago Bulls’ next game is on February 22. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season Leaders FP Per Game Own % and Value
Zach LaVine 34.8 100% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #16)
Lauri Markkanen 29.7 100% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #18)
Otto Porter 26 97% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #27)
Robin Lopez 15.6 11% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #40)
Kris Dunn 23.9 92% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #33)
Ryan Arcidiacono 13.5 3% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #114)

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